Sandbox: The Bootstrapper's Terminal
Session 2: Validating 24 Market Scenarios
1. The 45-Day Voyage
A buyer offers $8,500/ton for cargo arriving in 45 days.
2. Long-Term Supply
A factory wants 500 tons every month for a year.
3. The LME Benchmark
You need to determine the base value of the copper.
4. Single Day vs. Average
The contract must pick a pricing mechanism for the month.
5. Protecting the Margin
The LME price covers the bare metal. How do you get paid for freight?
6. Choosing the QP
The ship sails in March and arrives in Europe in April.
7. Cash Flow Survival
The QP is M+1 (April). The final price isn\'t known until April 30.
8. The Floating Risk
Your extraction costs are fixed at $8k. Your revenue floats on M+1.
9. The Final Settlement
The Provisional payment was $4M. The Final QP Value is $4.2M.
10. Aggressive Negotiation
The buyer refuses to pay a Physical Premium over the LME.
11. Immediate Need
You have 200 tons sitting in a warehouse right now.
12. The Next Evolution
How do elite traders solve the Floating Risk from Card 8?
13. The Too-Good Deal
An African supplier offers copper at 20% below LME.
14. Vetting: Step 1
The supplier emails you a beautiful PDF of their mining license.
15. Vetting: Step 3
The supplier provides a bank account in Cyprus.
16. Controlling the Ship
A German gigafactory buys from a new, risky African mine.
17. Logistics Arbitrage
You are the Exporter. You can get cheap freight rates ($50).
18. The Transfer of Risk
Under CIF, the ship sinks in the middle of the ocean. Who takes the loss?
19. The Extreme Liability
A buyer accepts DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) terms.
20. The Ultimate Document
The cargo arrives in Europe. How does the buyer prove they own it?
21. The Demurrage Threat
The buyer takes 15 days to unload the ship at the destination port.
22. The Future of Logistics
What happens if the paper B/L is lost by the DHL courier?
23. Passing the Penalty
You sold CIF. The buyer causes demurrage. The shipping line bills YOU.
24. EXW (Ex Works)
A lazy seller offers EXW terms.