This reference workbook calculates the OECD Consensus requirements for Export Credit Agency (ECA) coverage, and models the absolute capital destruction of Naked Liquidation.
Kamal secures an $8,000,000 contract with an emerging market state buyer. To secure his home country's ECA guarantee and prevent an illegal trade subsidy, he must enforce the mandatory OECD 15% upfront cash down payment.
| Cell | Data Label | Forensic Input Value |
|---|---|---|
| B2 | Total Contract Value | $8,000,000 USD |
| B3 | OECD Mandatory Down Payment Minimum | 15% |
| B4 | ECA Premium (Country Risk Category 5) | 2.5% |
ECA Guaranteed Financed Amount (Cell B5):
Logic: $8M - ($8M × 15%) = $6,800,000 USD.
Kamal must collect $1.2M in cash upfront from the buyer. The ECA will only insure and guarantee the remaining $6.8M credit portion of the contract.
The buyer's Central Bank halts all USD wire transfers. Kamal's $6,800,000 is trapped. Kamal files a Political Risk claim with the ECA. The policy covers 95% of political events.
| Cell | Data Label | Forensic Input Value |
|---|---|---|
| C2 | Financed Debt Value (Trapped) | $6,800,000 USD |
| C3 | ECA Political Risk Coverage | 95% |
| C4 | ECA Premium Paid | -$170,000 USD |
Sovereign State Payout (Cell C5):
Logic: $6,800,000 × 95% = $6,460,000 USD Recovered.
Kamal's enterprise survives a massive geopolitical shock. The ECA's diplomatic wing now takes over the debt recovery directly with the foreign government.
Assume Kamal shipped the $8M on Naked Open Account without an ECA. The buyer goes bankrupt (Chapter 7 Liquidation). The liquidator raises $2,000,000 from asset sales. Secured Banks and Taxes claim $1,900,000. Kamal is an Unsecured Creditor.
| Cell | Data Label | Forensic Input Value |
|---|---|---|
| D2 | Total Liquidated Cash Pool | $2,000,000 USD |
| D3 | Priority Claims (Banks & Taxes) | -$1,900,000 USD |
| D4 | Total Unsecured Claims (Including Kamal's $8M) | $20,000,000 USD |
Pro-Rata Unsecured Payout (Cell D5):
Logic: $100k remaining × ($8M / $20M) = $40,000 USD Final Payout. Kamal shipped $8M of copper and received $40k. He is completely wiped out by the Creditor Hierarchy.
This reference workbook details the financial models calculating lethal General Average proportional assessments, 110% CIF valuations, and AWRP margin destruction.
A ship hits a storm. The captain jettisons $10,000,000 of containers. The total value of the surviving ship and the surviving cargo is $100,000,000. Kamal has a $5,000,000 container onboard that survived perfectly.
| Cell | Data Label | Forensic Input Value |
|---|---|---|
| E2 | Value of Sacrificed Property | $10,000,000 USD |
| E3 | Total Surviving Value (Ship + Cargo) | $100,000,000 USD |
| E4 | Value of Kamal's Surviving Cargo | $5,000,000 USD |
Kamal's Hostage GA Contribution (Cell E5):
Logic: $5M × (10%) = $500,000 USD Penalty. Kamal's cargo is safe, but the shipping line places a lien on his box. He must pay a half-million dollars in cash, or post a marine insurance guarantee, just to get his own goods back.
Kamal ships copper under CIF terms. His raw material cost is $2,000,000. He paid $100,000 for ocean freight. To survive a sinking, he insures it at the elite standard: 110% of CIF.
| Cell | Data Label | Forensic Input Value |
|---|---|---|
| F2 | Raw Material Cost | $2,000,000 USD |
| F3 | Ocean Freight & Insurance Premium | $100,000 USD |
| F4 | Valuation Multiplier | 110% (1.10) |
Total Insured Recovery Value (Cell F5):
Logic: $2,100,000 × 1.10 = $2,310,000 USD.
If the ship sinks, Kamal recovers his sunk product costs, his sunk freight costs, plus a $210,000 buffer to represent lost profit and operational recovery capital.
Kamal's vessel must transit the Red Sea. War breaks out mid-voyage. His gross margin on the trade is $150,000. His insurer demands an Additional War Risk Premium (AWRP) of 2% of the total vessel cargo value ($5M) to maintain coverage.
| Cell | Data Label | Forensic Input Value |
|---|---|---|
| G2 | Total Cargo Value | $5,000,000 USD |
| G3 | Corporate Gross Margin | $150,000 USD |
| G4 | AWRP Demand (War Zone Transit) | 2.0% |
Geopolitical Margin Annihilation (Cell G5):
Logic: $150k Margin - ($5M × 2%) = $150,000 - $100,000 = $50,000 USD Remaining Profit. A geopolitical shock can wipe out 66% of a corporate margin overnight in unbudgeted insurance premiums.